Liverpool’s next manager looks likely to be Xabi Alonso. Sporting CP boss Rúben Amorim’s key data suggests he might be a better fit as successor to Jürgen Klopp though.

Rúben Amorim’s favored style of play aligns with Jürgen Klopp’s.
It does not feel likely that the re-hiring of Michael Edwards will make too much difference to Liverpool’s search for their next manager, at least publicly.

The process of evaluating potential bosses has already been underway for some time.

The news of Edwards’ appointment had no impact on the betting market. Bookmakers still believe Xabi Alonso will be the Reds’ next manager, with Rúben Amorim second favorite and Roberto De Zerbi third. It feels like the 2023/24 Europa League is an audition process based on this, as the trio’s clubs are ranked in the same order for the likelihood of winning that competition.

The search for a successor for Jürgen Klopp will inevitably rely upon data. Liverpool’s former head of research Ian Graham has spoken in the past about how difficult it is to separate a manager’s influence from the myriad factors which contribute to a team’s results. Doing so successfully is way above our pay grade, but some interesting statistics have highlighted that Amorim could prove to be the right candidate.

Or at the very least, the numbers suggest a transition between Klopp and the 39-year-old could potentially be achieved relatively painlessly. This is based on three statistics which were plotted on a Venn diagram by The Times and Sunday Times.

They assessed Premier League managers by three metrics, all of which are available via Opta Analyst. The numbers show that Liverpool is the only team in the division with their level of intricate passing, heavy pressing and speed of attack. To match the Reds, another team would have to average more than 3.5 passes per passing sequence, allow their opponents fewer than 12 passes per defensive action, and advance up the pitch at more than 1.8 meters per second on average.

We can see from the above chart that De Zerbi only matches Klopp for two of the three categories. Brighton meets the passing and pressing criteria, but its direct speed of 1.53m/s is second only to Manchester City for the slowest team in the English top flight.

As Alonso is the likeliest man to succeed Klopp, let’s look at Bayer Leverkusen. While not as considered as De Zerbi’s side, Alonso’s men have the lowest direct speed in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen’s 1.72m/s average excludes him from the center of the diagram.

But with a PPDA of 12.7, Alonso is outside the pressing limit too. As Leverkusen averages 5.07 passes per sequence, the former Liverpool midfielder would be in the same zone as Pep Guardiola, Marco Silva and Unai Emery.

And that brings us to Amorim. Sporting CP’s direct speed is 1.87m/s, it allows 11.2 passes per defensive action and once it has the ball its possession sequences average 3.87 passes. While not an exact match for the Reds’ figures of 1.92, 8.9 and 4.08 respectively, the numbers are close enough to ensure Amorim would be keeping Klopp company in the central zone on the above image.

Of course, there are many other factors to account for before offering him, or anyone else, one of the biggest jobs in world football. However, it’s worth noting Amorim has managed more matches than Alonso, be that in total, in Europe or in the Champions League specifically, and he will have won more trophies no matter what the Spaniard achieves in this remarkable season.

None of this is to say the Sporting CP gaffer is conclusively the man for the job. But at the same time, his data suggests he should be given serious thought by the hierarchy at Liverpool.

Liverpool.com says: As replacing Klopp is a near-impossible task, the fact Alonso would have greater initial buy-in from Liverpool supporters is an undoubted selling point. Equally, Fenway Sports Group has plowed its own furrow so may not take too much notice of this. They will certainly trust Edwards and co to make the right appointment too. At the very least, Amorim’s career and key statistics suggest this should not be a one-horse race by any means.